Taiwan, the self-governing island comprised of 24 million people, votes today, January 13th 2024, for a new president and legislature. The result will set Taiwan's course regarding containment efforts against Chinese dominance and security threats as well as its continuing relations pitting China and the United States.
Taiwan has ruled separately from mainland China since 1949 when the vanquished Nationalist forces fled to the island after losing the civil war against the Communists. China considers Taiwan a rebel province that needs to be brought back into the fold one day by force of arms if necessary.
For its part, Taiwan has developed its own democratic system, own identity and culture over those decades, and the majority Taiwanese do not want or support the possibility of re-unification with China.
On the line for the Taiwanese electorate hangs the central dispute over how to deal with an increasingly aggressive and even belligerent China whose much greater military, diplomatic, and economic pressure on the island have increased in recent years. China has also upped its game on its propaganda and disinformation campaigns to subject Taiwan's politics and public opinion into its hands.
The surprising three-horse presidential race is between:
- Lai Ching-te from the governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), who is the incumbent Vice President and former Premier. He's being backed by the pro-independence voters and supports maintaining the status quo with China. His running mate is Hsiao Bi-khim, the former Representative to the United States.
- Hou Yu-ih, of the opposition Kuomintang (KMT), the incumbent Mayor of New Taipei City and a former Minister of the Interior. He is supported by voters in favor of the island unifying with China and is in favor of resuming talks with the mainland. His running mate is Jaw Shaw-kong, a former legislator and radio host.
- Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People's Party (TPP), former mayor of Taipei and a surgeon. The centrist and swing voters definitely are with him, and the backup of pragmatic approach to cross-strait does come about. His running mate is Cynthia Wu who is also of the legislator cadre and had worked as a journalist earlier.
According to the latest polls, Lai leads the race with 36% of the vote, followed by Hou with 31% and Ko with 24%. However, the race is still too close to call as many voters are indecisive or that they may be last-minute deciders.
Furthermore, there is a high margin of error with the possibility of some pollsters to mis-estimate the expenditure rate for Ko whose members have a loyal base and are young and urban voters.
The presidential challengers hold contrasting views around how to calibrate Taiwan's relationship with China and the United States, which is locked in a strategic rivalry that has spilled over from trade into the Indo-Pacific region. Taiwan is a critical partner and ally of the United States to provide the island with security assistance and diplomatic support.
The United States has also increased the presence of its own military and exercises in the Taiwan Strait as well as in the waters of the South China Sea, through which it attempts to deter China from using military action against or any intimidation of Taiwan.
Lai has described himself as a "pragmatic worker for Taiwan independence" and has vowed to safeguard the island's sovereignty and democracy, and deepen ties with the United States and other like-minded countries.
He has also pledged to strengthen the country's military capacity and preparedness, and to encourage its participation in international organizations and agreements. Lai has criticized the aggression of Beijing, and even have rejected any kind of dialogue or compromises until China will not respect existance of Taiwan and its will to exist.
Hou, who is seen as a moderate and pragmatic figure, has promised to restore stability and prosperity to Taiwan and enhance cross-strait relations by talking and working things out together. He has also ensured the safety of the security and interests of Taiwan and that the country maintains a friendly and constructive relationship with the United States and other countries.
Hou has argued that only confrontation and isolation with China are not in Taiwan's best interest, instead island should seek common ground and mutual benefit with Beijing, based on the 1992 Consensus, a tacit agreement there is only one China, but each side can have its own interpretation of what that means.
Due to his brusque and non-conventional style, Ko is notorious among media. He presents a "third way" for Taiwan, which he dubbed the "2020 Consensus". He defines it as "one country on each side, with mutual non-denial and mutual recognition". He also called earlier for a "three no's" policy: no unification, no independence and no use of force.
Ko stresses that Taiwan should seek its own development and innovation instead of being dragged by the US-China rivalry. He has also suggested Taiwan seek to strike a "win-win-win" position with both China and the United States wherein it can play positive and constructive role in this region.
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During the presidential election, a choice is made between different candidates and visions, as well as values regarding the future of Taiwan. The voters will be weighing the risks and the opportunities of each option, and will decide what kind of relations they want to have with China and the world.
The election will also significantly impact the balance of powers and stability in the Indo-Pacific region, given Taiwan still a key flashpoint and factor on US-China competition. The election results would be closely watched by the international community since it will set Taiwan's history and place of destination. –(Greatidea360)
